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11:37EST: 12.45M-11.71M, markets have been reacting significantly for a while
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11:21EST: 11M-10.4M, ITV says 85% chance of Exit
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11:14EST: Cable down from 1.50 to 1.36, almost 10%
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11:00EST: 9.13 Exit-8.67 Remain.
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UPDATE
10:32 Cable (GBP/USD) is down 6%, the largest single day drop ever.
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As I write this, ‘Leave’ has just taken the lead (~6.2M-~5.9M), and the odds of ‘Brexit'[1] have just hit 75%:
Earlier in the evening, less than an hour ago, they were statistically tied at about 3M votes each.
So, what does this really mean?
Let’s take a step back and hear what Sir Humphrey Appleby has to say about why Britain joined the EU in the first place:
The relevant transcript:
”
Sir Humphrey Appleby: “Minister, Britain has had the same foreign policy objective for at least the last 500 years: to create a disunited Europe. In that cause we have fought with the Dutch against the Spanish[2], with the Germans against the French, with the French and Italians against the Germans, and with the French against the Germans and Italians. Divide and rule, you see. Why should we change now when it’s worked so well?”
James Hacker: “That’s all ancient history, surely.”
Sir Humphrey Appleby: “Yes, and current policy. We had to break the whole thing [the EEC] up, so we had to get inside. We tried to break it up from the outside, but that wouldn’t work. Now that we’re inside we can make a complete pig’s breakfast of the whole thing: set the Germans against the French, the French against the Italians, the Italians against the Dutch. The Foreign Office is terribly pleased, it’s just like old times.”
”
So, the cynical viewpoint would ask whether the British Foreign Office has decided that they’ve done all they can to promote a disunited Europe from within.
Other viewpoints include the idea that the people of the UK truly want to leave, or are being convinced to leave by various demagogues.
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10:32 Cable (GBP/USD) is down 6%, the largest single day drop ever.
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I don’t have a strong handle on what a ‘Brexit’ will actually do. Here’s an article talking about the worst things that are likely to happen. Basically, the UK will go back to being a closely related country from one with totally open borders, unified standards, etc…
I suspect the momentum would keep it going, along with the large number of expats in each direction (on the order of a few million in each direction). Proximity would keep Britain as a major trading partner with the EU, economics would keep regulations reasonably close, etc…
A larger issue would probably be the threat of Scotland leaving Britain to join the EU.
There are probably also questions of what a ‘Yes’ vote actually means. It might just mean a slight separation between Britain and the EU (which would incidentally meet the goals of the cynical Foreign Office above).
It’s also important to remember that London remains an incredibly important financial capital, and geographically very close, so the ties will still be there regardless.
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11:00EST: 9.13 Exit-8.67 Remain.
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11:14EST: Cable down from 1.50 to 1.36, almost 10%
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[1]What a terrible name. It doesn’t even sound like a good breakfast cereal, more like one of those that tastes uninteresting and has a terrible texture.
[2]Note that those are but three examples out of a large set of Anglo-Spanish wars.
[3]ibid Anglo-French wars. Note that most of these did not in fact include Germany as an official co-belligerent, until revolutionary/Napoleonic times. (Note that was before the German (Prussian) unification of 1871.)
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