{"id":392,"date":"2015-07-22T04:59:24","date_gmt":"2015-07-22T04:59:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/?p=392"},"modified":"2016-02-29T04:11:51","modified_gmt":"2016-02-29T04:11:51","slug":"analysis-archer-the-danger-zone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/2015\/07\/22\/analysis-archer-the-danger-zone\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysis: Archer: The Danger Zone!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>So, we played this game last night:<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/boardgamegeek.com\/boardgame\/137336\/archer-danger-zone-board-game<\/p>\n<p>The game is a good game for terrible people, although nowhere near as terrible as Cards Against Humanity, but as many of the reviews say, those who don&#8217;t know the show &#8216;Archer&#8217; will likely not enjoy it anywhere near as much.<\/p>\n<p>But this is not a review.  This is a design and decision blog post.<\/p>\n<p>During the game, your character chooses to attempt various challenges.  To attempt a challenge, you roll 1,2, or 3 dice.  You have four skills (Booze, Guns, Sex, and Smarts), one of which you will need to use for each challenge.  Each of your skills allows you to roll a number of dice to overcome that type of challenge.  The challenges (mostly) come in the four types above, and three difficulty levels.<br \/>\nLevel 1 challenges earn you 1 victory point, and require you to roll 6 or higher.<br \/>\nTable:<br \/>\nLevel: 1, 1VP, roll 6+<br \/>\nLevel: 2, 2VP, roll 8+<br \/>\nLevel: 3, 3VP, roll 10+<br \/>\nLevel: 4, 4VP, roll 14+<\/p>\n<p>(Level 4 challenges are considered &#8216;personal&#8217;, and you can use any skill to overcome them.)<\/p>\n<p>So, this decision tree seems pretty simple.  For a game of sufficient length, you can just play the odds and go by the best expectation value [XV]:<\/p>\n<p>1d6:<br \/>\nLevel 1 1\/6 (16.7%) [XV 0.167]<br \/>\nLevel 2,3,4 Impossible<br \/>\n2d6:<br \/>\nLevel 1 26\/36 (72.2%) [XV 0.722]<br \/>\nLevel 2 15\/36 (41.7%) [XV 0.834]<br \/>\nLevel 3  6\/36 (16.7%) [XV 0.500]<br \/>\nLevel 4 Impossible<br \/>\n3d6:<br \/>\nLevel 1 206\/216 (95.4%) [XV 0.954]<br \/>\nLevel 2 181\/216 (83.8%) [XV 1.676]<br \/>\nLevel 3 135\/216 (62.5%) [XV 1.875]<br \/>\nLevel 4  35\/216 (16.2%) [XV 0.648]<\/p>\n<p>So, with no special abilities\/powers, the expectation values (for a game of sufficient length) suggest the following ranking:<br \/>\n3d6 for level 3<br \/>\n3d6 for level 2<br \/>\n3d6 for level 1<br \/>\n2d6 for level 2<br \/>\n2d6 for level 1<br \/>\n3d6 for level 4<br \/>\n2d6 for level 3<br \/>\n1d6 for level 1<\/p>\n<p>Which kind of makes sense, where you have characters playing to their strengths, makes each character different and encourages role-playing.  (My character, Krieger, spent almost all his time in his lab, trying to insult any character who got too close.)<\/p>\n<p>All of this becomes more complicated when you factor in a few other game rules.<br \/>\n1) &#8216;Insults&#8217;.  Whenever you roll a 5 or 6, you get to draw an &#8216;Insult&#8217; card which either increases your score or decreases someone else&#8217;s score.  The increase to your score is in average 1\/2 point.  The average decrease to others&#8217; score is also about 1\/2 point.  (As you generally only decrease one other character&#8217;s score, this is less useful, unless there&#8217;s only one character in front of you, and it&#8217;s mean.)  We&#8217;ll allocate 0.75 expectation value to this, assuming there are two characters in front of you, on average.  So, 1d6 would add 0.75*2\/6, 2d6 0.75*4\/6, and 3d6 would add 0.75*6\/6 XV, respectively<\/p>\n<p>This gives you:<\/p>\n<p>1d6:<br \/>\nLevel 1 1\/6 (16.7%) (+0.25 insults) [XV 0.417]<br \/>\nLevel 2,3,4 Impossible<br \/>\n2d6:<br \/>\nLevel 1 26\/36 (72.2%) (+0.5 insults) [XV 1.222]<br \/>\nLevel 2 15\/36 (41.7%) (+0.5 insults) [XV 1.334]<br \/>\nLevel 3  6\/36 (16.7%) (+0.5 insults) [XV 1.000]<br \/>\nLevel 4 Impossible<br \/>\n3d6:<br \/>\nLevel 1 206\/216 (95.4%) (+0.75 insults) [XV 1.704]<br \/>\nLevel 2 181\/216 (83.8%) (+0.75 insults) [XV 2.426]<br \/>\nLevel 3 135\/216 (62.5%) (+0.75 insults) [XV 2.625]<br \/>\nLevel 4  35\/216 (16.2%) (+0.75 insults) [XV 1.398]<\/p>\n<p>This makes the 3d6 skills even stronger, giving the ranking:<br \/>\n3d6 for level 3<br \/>\n3d6 for level 2<br \/>\n3d6 for level 1<br \/>\n3d6 for level 4<br \/>\n2d6 for level 2<br \/>\n2d6 for level 1<br \/>\n2d6 for level 3<br \/>\n1d6 for level 1<br \/>\n(Not sure if you can roll for impossible missions, just enough to deliver insults)<\/p>\n<p>2) The &#8216;Break Room&#8217; allows you to roll 3d6 for any type of challenge, but if you don&#8217;t overcome the challenge, you lose one VP.  This changes the decision to the following:<\/p>\n<p>3d6:<br \/>\nLevel 1 206\/216 (+1 95.4%), (-1  4.6%) [XV 0.906] + 0.75 from insults = 1.656<br \/>\nLevel 2 181\/216 (+2 83.8%), (-1 16.2%) [XV 1.514] + 0.75 from insults = 2.264<br \/>\nLevel 3 135\/216 (+3 62.5%), (-1 37.5%) [XV 1.500] + 0.75 from insults = 2.250<br \/>\nLevel 4  35\/216 (+4 16.2%), (-1 83.8%) [XV -0.190] + 0.75 from insults = 0.56<\/p>\n<p>Giving the ranking:<br \/>\n3d6 for level 2<br \/>\n3d6 for level 3<br \/>\n3d6 for level 1<br \/>\n3d6 for level 4<\/p>\n<p>Making this strategy more risk averse, but probably higher scoring, if you&#8217;re getting a lot of challenges which are not suited to your skills, such as if you&#8217;re sitting right behind the other character who has the same strong skill as you.  (Each character has 1 skill at 3d6, 2 skills at 2d6, one skill at 1d6.)<\/p>\n<p>3) The &#8216;Applied Research Lab&#8217; allows you to re-roll each of your dice once.  This is quite powerful&#8230; The question is which dice you re-roll when?  This should really be a table (a *large* table):<\/p>\n<p>1d6:<br \/>\n1-5 1\/6 chance (16.7%)<br \/>\nIf you miss, re-roll on 1,2,3,4 (5 gives you an insult, which is worth more (0.75) than re-rolling (0.42).<br \/>\n[Overall XV 0.167->0.333]<br \/>\n[Including insults: 0.42->0.64]<br \/>\n2d6:<br \/>\nLevel 1 challenges (6+)<br \/>\nIf you miss, re-roll any dice with 1,2,3<br \/>\n[Overall XV 0.72->0.93]<br \/>\n[Including insults: 1.22->1.55]<br \/>\nLevel 2 challenges (8+)<br \/>\nIf you miss, re-roll any dice with 1,2,3<br \/>\n[Overall XV 0.83->1.45]<br \/>\n[Including insults: 1.33->2.16]<br \/>\nLevel 3 challenges (10+)<br \/>\nIf you miss, re-roll any dice with 1,2,3,4 (you can re-roll only 1,2,3 in some cases, but easier to remember to just re-roll 1,2,3,4)<br \/>\n[Overall XV 0.50->1.19]<br \/>\n[Including insults: 1.00->1.97]<br \/>\n(Level 4 challenges are impossible with 2d6)<br \/>\n3d6:<br \/>\nLevel 1 challenges (6+)<br \/>\nIf you miss, re-roll any dice with 1,2<br \/>\n[Overall XV 0.95->0.998]<br \/>\n[Including insults: 1.70->1.78]<br \/>\nLevel 2 challenges (8+)<br \/>\nIf you miss, re-roll any dice with 1,2,3<br \/>\n[Overall XV 1.68->1.96]<br \/>\n[Including insults: 2.43->2.82]<br \/>\nLevel 3 challenges (10+)<br \/>\nIf you miss, re-roll any dice with 1,2,3 (you also choose only to re-roll the 1 if you have 1,3,5 and need 10, interestingly&#8230;)<br \/>\n[Overall XV 1.88->2.71]<br \/>\n[Including insults: 2.62->3.67]<br \/>\nLevel 4 challenges (14+)<br \/>\nIf you miss, re-roll any dice with 1,2,3 (if you get 4,4,4 or 4,4,5, you should re-roll one 4)<br \/>\n[Overall XV 0.65->1.76]<br \/>\n[Including insults: 1.40->2.88]<\/p>\n<p>Conclusions?  Left as an exercise for the reader&#8230; \ud83d\ude42  (Best summary in the comments gets a secret prize, which may include glory&#8230;)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>So, we played this game last night: https:\/\/boardgamegeek.com\/boardgame\/137336\/archer-danger-zone-board-game The game is a good game for terrible people, although nowhere near as terrible as Cards Against Humanity, but as many of the reviews say, those who don&#8217;t know the show &#8216;Archer&#8217; will likely not enjoy it anywhere near as much. But this is not a review. &hellip; <a href=\"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/2015\/07\/22\/analysis-archer-the-danger-zone\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Analysis: Archer: The Danger Zone!<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[11,23],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/392"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=392"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/392\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1081,"href":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/392\/revisions\/1081"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=392"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=392"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=392"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}