{"id":2119,"date":"2016-06-24T03:10:05","date_gmt":"2016-06-24T03:10:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/?p=2119"},"modified":"2016-06-24T03:38:24","modified_gmt":"2016-06-24T03:38:24","slug":"should-they-stay-or-should-they-go","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/2016\/06\/24\/should-they-stay-or-should-they-go\/","title":{"rendered":"Should They Stay or Should They Go?"},"content":{"rendered":"

***
\n11:37EST: 12.45M-11.71M, markets have been reacting significantly for a while<\/a>
\n***
\n***
\n11:21EST: 11M-10.4M, ITV says 85% chance of Exit
\n***
\n***
\n11:14EST: Cable down from 1.50 to 1.36, almost 10%
\n***
\n***
\n11:00EST: 9.13 Exit-8.67 Remain.
\n***
\n***
\nUPDATE
\n10:32 Cable (GBP\/USD) is down 6%, the largest single day drop ever.
\n***<\/p>\n

As I write this, ‘Leave’ has just taken the lead (~6.2M-~5.9M), and the odds of ‘Brexit'[1] have just hit 75%:<\/p>\n

”
\nUpdate 10:27PM: And another city that was supposed to be solidly in the Remain camp, Sheffield, has just turned to Leave:
\nLEAVE: 136,018
\nREMAIN: 130,735
\n* * *
\nUpdate 10:17 PM: ITV reporting that Leave probability odds are now 75% ITV NEWS RESULTS ANALYSIS: 75% PROBABILITY OF LEAVE TO WINWhile Ladbrokes once again has Leave favorite at 4\/6 with Remain 11\/10<\/a>
\n”<\/p>\n

Earlier in the evening, less than an hour ago, they were statistically tied at about 3M votes each.<\/p>\n

So, what does this really mean?<\/p>\n

Let’s take a step back and hear what Sir Humphrey Appleby has to say about why Britain joined the EU in the first place:<\/p>\n

Video Link<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The relevant transcript:<\/p>\n

”
\nSir Humphrey Appleby: “Minister, Britain has had the same foreign policy objective for at least the last 500 years: to create a disunited Europe. In that cause we have fought with the Dutch<\/a> against<\/a> the Spanish<\/a>[2], with the Germans<\/a> against the French<\/a>, with the French and Italians against the Germans<\/a>, and with the French against the Germans and Italians<\/a>. Divide and rule, you see. Why should we change now when it’s worked so well?”<\/p>\n

James Hacker: “That’s all ancient history, surely.”<\/p>\n

Sir Humphrey Appleby: “Yes, and current policy. We had to break the whole thing [the EEC] up, so we had to get inside. We tried to break it up from the outside, but that wouldn’t work. Now that we’re inside we can make a complete pig’s breakfast of the whole thing: set the Germans against the French, the French against the Italians, the Italians against the Dutch. The Foreign Office is terribly pleased, it’s just like old times.”
\n”<\/p>\n

So, the cynical viewpoint would ask whether the British Foreign Office has decided that they’ve done all they can to promote a disunited Europe from within.<\/p>\n

Other viewpoints include the idea that the people of the UK truly want to leave, or are being convinced to leave by various demagogues.<\/p>\n

***
\n10:32 Cable (GBP\/USD) is down 6%, the largest single day drop ever.
\n***<\/p>\n

I don’t have a strong handle on what a ‘Brexit’ will actually do. Here’s an article talking about the worst things that are likely to happen<\/a>. Basically, the UK will go back to being a closely related country from one with totally open borders, unified standards, etc…<\/p>\n

I suspect the momentum would keep it going, along with the large number of expats in each direction (on the order of a few million in each direction). Proximity would keep Britain as a major trading partner with the EU, economics would keep regulations reasonably close, etc…<\/p>\n

A larger issue would probably be the threat of Scotland leaving Britain to join the EU.<\/p>\n

There are probably also questions of what a ‘Yes’ vote actually means<\/a>. It might just mean a slight separation between Britain and the EU (which would incidentally meet the goals of the cynical Foreign Office above).<\/p>\n

It’s also important to remember that London remains an incredibly important financial capital, and geographically very close, so the ties will still be there regardless.<\/p>\n

***
\n11:00EST: 9.13 Exit-8.67 Remain.
\n***<\/p>\n

***
\n11:14EST: Cable down from 1.50 to 1.36, almost 10%
\n***<\/p>\n

[1]What a terrible name. It doesn’t even sound like a good breakfast cereal, more like one of those that tastes uninteresting and has a terrible texture.<\/p>\n

[2]Note that those are but three examples out of a large set of Anglo-Spanish wars<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[3]ibid Anglo-French wars<\/a>. Note that most of these did not in fact include Germany as an official co-belligerent, until revolutionary\/Napoleonic times. (Note that was before the German (Prussian) unification of 1871<\/a>.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

*** 11:37EST: 12.45M-11.71M, markets have been reacting significantly for a while *** *** 11:21EST: 11M-10.4M, ITV says 85% chance of Exit *** *** 11:14EST: Cable down from 1.50 to 1.36, almost 10% *** *** 11:00EST: 9.13 Exit-8.67 Remain. *** *** UPDATE 10:32 Cable (GBP\/USD) is down 6%, the largest single day drop ever. *** As … Continue reading Should They Stay or Should They Go?<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[19,29],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2119"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2119"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2119\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2132,"href":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2119\/revisions\/2132"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2119"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2119"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/nayrb.org\/~blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2119"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}